Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
Seasonal bullish factors
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
(责任编辑:财富观察)
- ·区块链节点是什么 区块链节点是什么意思啊
- ·韭菜圈儿是什么软件
- ·社保申报表下的工资总额怎么填
- ·股票怎么看阴阳线-股票怎么看阴阳线买入卖出价格
- ·新高附近做空比特币的交易员,在想什么?|交易员观察
- ·虚拟货币ico抢购软件-虚拟币抢单
- ·什么是回退税款所属期
- ·怎么删除wallet
- ·挖以太坊用什么显卡 挖以太坊用什么显卡性价比最高
- ·黑洞币在哪个交易平台
- ·瑞士比特币银行获得阿布扎比国际金融中心金融服务监管局的原则性批准
- ·2字头股票-2字头股票属什么板块
- ·虚拟货币为什么有价值 虚拟币为什么值钱
- ·朵朵币交易平台
- ·DeFi 项目 World Liberty Financial:获特朗普家族和加密人士站台,超 60% 治理代币面向公众发售
- ·元宝汇交易平台
- · 欧易开户
- · 0kx交易所官网
- · 虚拟货币交易平台排名
- · ok币
- · 亿欧交易所下载
- · 欧亿交易所怎么样。
- · 全球三大虚拟货币交易平台
- · 易欧app官网下载
- · 欧易最新版本
- · 欧亿app官网正式版下载